A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
