Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
